For record-high values projected in a few months for Australian housing, 2020 is poised to see the fastest record-breaking industry rebound. And it’s powered by the owner-occupiers, CoreLogic says. The Australian dwelling market has quickly recovered 6.7 percent, says Eliza Owen of CoreLogic, since national dwelling values bottomed out 8.4 percent below their peak in June 2019.
“This compares to an average recovery time of 11.7 months in previous cycles. This is remarkable when considering the relatively long time it took for the market to bottom-out. If growth rates continue at the January trajectory, Australia’s dwelling market will make a full nominal recovery by April, marking a 10-month recovery period,” she says.
Owen says the ABS housing finance data shows rather more development in this recovery from first home buyers, upgraders and down-sizers. Owner-occupants accounted for 59 percent of new residential investment during the last upturn from 2012 to 2017 but this has increased to 71 percent over the past seven months.
Since the start of the upswing in June last year, demand from property investors has grown relatively slow. Rules such as a 10 percent limit on investment financing growth and a 30 percent limit on interest-only lending, favored by investors have influenced investor housing demand since 2014 but these policies have been abolished by the beginning of 2019.
If pressures on affordability generate more competition in rental markets, the investor population could increase in the coming year, off the back of rising rents. That would be amplified as low mortgage rates make an investment property more interesting.